Indiana is currently too close to call as well, and the network reports that McCain leads by only 3 percent. The state has 11 electoral votes up for grabs, and Obama made a last minute stop there today. It has been a red state in recent history.

Kentucky has been called for McCain, while Vermont is projected to go to Obama. Both outcomes were generally expected based on voting history and poll numbers.

Although final results will trickle in throughout the night, if Obama wins the states he leads in, he’ll be within 55 electoral votes of the 270 he needs to be elected. That is a significant figure because California’s 55 electoral votes will almost certainly go to Obama, based on poll numbers and past election results. (California has gone blue since 1988 when George H.W. Bush took the White House)

While the South will likely vote Republican, Obama will capture many states in the Northeast. At 7 p.m. the polls will close in Iowa, Montana, Nevada and Utah.

By this time, Obama could have won Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Virginia, New York, New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Washington D.C. He leads in all those states and their 219 electoral votes would virtually clinch the presidency for him.

If McCain wins Pennsylvania or Ohio, his campaign will be in much better shape and will postpone the outcome until the West Coast results are in. If he can somehow win both states, the election will be much closer than anticipated and we may not have a winner until late tonight or tomorrow morning.

Cbsnews.com has a video with a visual breakdown of how the election could be decided earlier rather than later here.

Sen. John McCain has almost as many good luck charms as there are swing states, “ranging from a trusty compass to a feather, pen, blue sweater, shoes and penny.”

Sen. Barack Obama will wear an eagle pin and carry around a small charm of a Hindu monkey god.

As for their election night activities, McCain will continue the tradition of watching a movie as the results start to come in. Trailing in national polls, perhaps he’ll enjoy the football underdog movie Rudy?

Obama has a tradition of playing basketball the day of a big vote, which he did during the long and grueling primary season. The one primary contest when he didn’t play? The January 8 New Hampshire primary where he surprisingly lost to Hillary Clinton. I’m not sure who will play against the Democrat, but I would watch out for his long-range shooting.

We’ll be updating the national election buzz here all day (and into tomorrow if necessary).

The candidates made sure their votes were counted, as Sens. Barack Obama, Joe Biden, John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin all went to the polling places and voted this morning. Yahoo! News has the story from the AP here.

Some news outlets wondered if Palin, who ventured all the way back to Wasilla, Alaska to cast her ballot, voted for Alaskan Sen. Ted Stevens, who was recently convicted on ethics charges. No word yet on if she did or didn’t.

In the final presidential debate between Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama, hot-button issues such as abortion, negative campaign advertising and the vice-presidential choices dominated the discussion. For some viewers who watched the debate at 33 Revolutions Café in El Cerrito, that was a welcome change of pace.

“They really got them kind of butting heads,” viewer Suzanne Klein said of the debate topics.

Many pundits said before the debate that McCain needed a strong performance to revitalize his campaign. Poll numbers have suggested that Obama’s lead over the veteran senator is growing, and some even project an Obama landslide.

McCain openly challenged Obama with his comments, calling the senator out for reneging on a pledge to use only public financing for his campaign and again stating that Obama never went against the leaders of his party on issues.

“But it’s very clear that I have disagreed with the Bush administration. I have disagreed with leaders of my own party. I’ve got the scars to prove it,” McCain said.

He also brought up Obama’s past relationship with William Ayers, a former political radical who is now a college professor who the McCain campaign has sometimes referred to as a “terrorist.”

“I don’t care about an old washed-up terrorist,” McCain said. “But as Senator Clinton said in her debates with you, we need to know the full extent of that relationship.”

“Mr. Ayers has become the centerpiece of Senator McCain’s campaign over the last two or three weeks – this has been their primary focus,” Obama said in reply. “So let’s get the record straight: Bill Ayers is a professor of education in Chicago… Mr. Ayers is not involved in my campaign. He has never been involved in this campaign. And he will not advise me in the White House. So that’s Mr. Ayers.”

Viewer Pat Bell said Obama handled the Ayers situation very well.

“People have said that Obama was sort of baiting John McCain to go after him on the Ayers thing,” she said. “And he was ready. He gave a really strong response.”

Obama followed a pattern he started in previous debates by comparing McCain to President Bush and talking about a “new direction” for the country.

“If I occasionally have mistaken your policies for George Bush’s policies, it’s because on the core economic issues that matter to the American people – on tax policy, on energy policy, on spending priorities – you have been a vigorous supporter of President Bush,” Obama said. “And it hasn’t worked. And I think the American people understand it hasn’t worked. We need to move in a new direction.”

“Senator Obama, I am not President Bush,” McCain retorted. “If you wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run four years ago. I’m going to give a new direction to this economy in this country.”

Viewers at 33 Revolutions said Obama was victorious in the final meeting of the candidates, although the crowd was definitely skewed in his favor.

“I doubt if there is a McCain supporter in there,” Bell said about the café.

“I thought (McCain) did an adequate job,” viewer Eric Van James said. “I think he was probably better in one of the other debates.”

The final verdict on both candidates will be decided when voters head to the polls Nov. 4.

EL CERRITO  – The final debate of the 2008 presidential campaign reinforced stark ideological differences between Barack Obama and John McCain, but the unmistakable contrast in the candidates’ physical demeanor left local viewers with their most lasting impression.

“Obama seemed very poised, very presidential, calm and collected,” said David Berger, one of 500 people watching from the sold-out Speakeasy Theater in El Cerrito, Calif.

“McCain just seemed a little unstable, a little angry. What I saw today was a little bit more desperation from him that in the last two debates,” Berger said.

Pressed hard by moderator Bob Schieffer, the two contenders battled over a broader range of domestic issues – including abortion, education and energy policy – than they had during either of the past debates.

The split-screen broadcast used by C-SPAN and other networks amplified the perceived difference between the candidates’ temperaments.

“When I’m looking at McCain he’s got a lot of facial expressions going on, he’s not acting very professionally compared to Obama,” said Ray Ross of Oakland, Calif. “All of this fake smiling and moving his hands and stuff. I think it’s very unprofessional of him to do that.”

Nationally, public opinion seemed to confirm the reaction of the theater’s unabashedly liberal Bay Area crowd.

Undecided voters polled by CBS judged Obama the winner by a considerable 53 to 22 percent margin. An online Fox News poll also went to Obama, 67 to 33 percent.

And 50 undecided voters in Denver, CO polled after the debate felt McCain gave “a decidedly un-presidential performance, appearing rude, negative, and easily flustered,” according to a memo from Democracy Corps, the national opinion research firm conducting the poll.

The Democracy Corp sample group, which entered the night favoring McCain, shifted its support towards Obama by a margin of 42 to 20 percent after the debate’s conclusion.

Such a result would not have seemed likely after the first few debate questions when, by most accounts, McCain appeared very much in control.

In one of the evening’s most memorable lines, McCain defended himself more forcefully against Obama’s efforts to tie him to the failed policies of the Bush administration

“Senator Obama, I am not President Bush,” said McCain. “If you wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run four years ago.”

But Obama deflected McCain’s attack with an equally pointed counter punch, as he did consistently throughout the 90-minute debate.

“The fact of the matter is that if I occasionally mistake your policies for George Bush’s policies, it’s because on the core economic issues that matter to the American people — on tax policy, on energy policy, on spending priorities — you have been a vigorous supporter of President Bush.”

David Berger, the Obama supporter from Hercules, Calif., agreed.

“If anything, this last debate seems to have pushed [McCain] closer toward the values of the Bush presidency, but more importantly he came across as more erratic and unstable,” he said.

Even when McCain directly accused Obama of ties to former Weather Underground leader Williams Ayers, an exchange both campaigns had foreseen, the momentum did not seem to shift in his favor.

In fact, many local viewers felt Obama’s straightforward response to the accusation actually increased the Democrat’s credibility.

“I always like the way that he explains things without being mean spirited, but never backs away from having to explain anything,” said Gail Smith, of Richmond, Calif.

Overall, Oakland, Calif., resident Mike Konzac felt the final debate was productive, both for the candidates and the American people.

“I think there was a fairly good discussion of what [the candidates] stood for and I think, at least hopefully, people are now more informed and have found their answers to what they needed.”

With only three weeks left until the election, David Berger, the Obama supporter, wondered what else it would take for voters to make up their minds.

“I just don’t know what they’re undecided about at this point.”

BY N’JERI EATON//

A small crowd of locals gathered at Raphael’s Café in El Cerrito to watch Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama clash on issues of the economy, tax cuts, and foreign policy during a town hall presidential debate on Tuesday night. For the spectators at the café, the repetitive nature of the debate was disappointing.

Raphael’s regular Kenneth Joseph thought the debate seemed more like a publicity stunt.

“I have a problem calling it a debate. They should call it a joint appearance instead,” Joseph said.

For the audience at Raphael’s, the town hall format was a chance to see how its candidates would hold up in that setting.

Rob Katzenstein, a solar energy project manager, thought that part of the problem was the town hall-style debate that let the audience ask questions, but didn’t allow any follow up.

“The format was weak,” Katzenstein said. “Both used it to preach their doctrine and didn’t focus on the questions.”

Obama and McCain often repeated the same policies that they talked about in the first debate, but without adding many specifics. McCain talked once more about cutting government spending and not raising taxes. Meanwhile, Obama elaborated on his middle-class tax cuts and discussed restoring America’s standing. Both candidates stuck to their strategies of attack: McCain painting his opponent as naïve and unprepared, while Obama continued to link McCain to the failures of the Bush administration.

Raphael’s owner and chef Otis Timmons was hoping the format would lead to some surprises from the candidates.

“I thought it would bring about a different side of McCain,” he said. “But he was the same old guy with the same old lies.”

Timmons normally closes the café at 2 p.m., but when he heard many people were turned away from the Cerrito Speakeasy Theater next door, he decided to keep his doors open.

“I was going to watch the debates anyway, so I thought we might as well watch them here,” he said.

Katzenstein said he believes that McCain is misleading the public about his energy policy. He said that McCain has indeed voted many times against alternative energy.

“The record speaks for itself: McCain is just jumping on the renewable energy bandwagon,” Katzenstein said.

For Joseph, who was born in Panama but is now an U.S. citizen, he hopes that Obama will fulfill his promise to restore the country’s standing in the world if he becomes president.

“I have a vital interest in this election,” he said. “Because every time I leave this country, the last thing I want people to know is that I’m an American citizen.”

Timmons hopes that for the last debate, the candidates will provide specifics instead of rhetoric. He said that he’s frustrated with the candidates’ strategy and hopes that they will give people more.

“They just kept repeating, repeating, repeating,” Timmons said

Raphael’s has been an El Cerrito eatery for more than 25 years. It is a place where the staff greets customers with hugs and handshakes. Katzenstein admits he came to the café to watch the debate because “Otis can make a mean omelet.”

The café had a limited staff tonight: Just Timmons and his son Raphael. Occasionally, someone would order a sandwich or an omelet, but most of the time, work was at a standstill and everyone’s attention was focused on the debate.

Raphael’s Café will stay open late once more for the third and final presidential debate on Wednesday, Oct. 15. The debate will be held at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y., and will focus on the economy and domestic policy.

BY MATT DURNING //

EL CERRITO – A capacity crowd of more than 500 people gathered at the Cerrito Speakeasy Theater in El Cerrito last night to watch the first debate between presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama.

Afterward, national pundits appeared hesitant to declare a victory for either candidate, but for Crystal Higgins, 44, of Concord, the victor was clear.

“Obama came out on top. He really showed us that he has what it takes to be our leader, to get us out of this rut that we’ve been in, and to earn us the respect again that Bush has lost for our country.”

Wearing pro-Obama t-shirts, hats, and buttons, the lively theater audience expressed seemingly unanimous support for the Democratic candidate, cheering loudly for Obama and booing enthusiastically for McCain throughout the 90-minute event.

“There’s no doubt who every single person in this theater is going to vote for,” said Michael McCarthy, 31, a law student at UC Berkeley.

Repeating established campaign themes, McCain took every opportunity to characterize Obama as too “naïve” and “inexperienced” to lead the country, while Obama frequently associated McCain with what he called the failed policies of the Bush administration.

In particular, Obama sought to connect the $10 billion a month America is currently spending in Iraq with the country’s lack of universal health care coverage and what he sees as an inadequate federal investment in education, science and technology, especially renewable energy projects.

David Wheeler, 30, of Pinole said he was impressed by Obama’s ability to communicate the cause and effect dynamics of complex issues and felt McCain spent too much time focusing on isolated policy positions.

“Obama was looking at the forest whereas McCain concentrated on the trees,” he said.

While neither candidate seemed to deliver any clear knockouts or major gaffes, both local reaction and national polling immediately following the debate showed increased public confidence in Obama’s ability to handle critical foreign policy and national security issues.

“I think there were a lot of questions about his foreign policy stance and whether or not he was capable of answering international threats,” said Gabrielle Rhodes-Dreyer, 23, of El Cerrito, “and I think he answered those questions very well.”

A CNN/Opinion Research Corp survey of debate watchers agreed, finding McCain’s edge on the question of which candidate would best handle terrorism had fallen to just four percent, 49 – 45.

Similarly, among a group of undecided Republican-leaning voters in St. Louis, Obama’s debate performance achieved significant gains on the question of who would do better on foreign policy (closing the gap with McCain by eight points), according to a set of dial and focus groups conducted during and after the debate by Democracy Corps, a national opinion research polling firm.

“I think that Obama showed his confidence and his capability and he seemed to take the higher ground,” said Sandhya Ramadas, 26, of Berkeley.

Against the backdrop of the nation’s impending financial crisis, moderator Jim Lehrer opened the foreign policy-themed debate by asking a series of questions about the economy and the Bush administration’s proposed $700 billion bailout.

McCain focused his economic arguments on government waste and greed, promising that as president he would veto all bills tainted with earmarks.

At one point, in response to a question on how he might cut back spending in the wake of the current financial crisis, McCain suggested he would consider a spending freeze on everything but defense, veteran’s affairs, and entitlement programs.

McCarthy, a law student and Obama supporter, was unconvinced. “I thought that McCain sounded very unsure during the economic portion of the debate. I thought he had an arguing strategy that is not very sympathetic to people.”

Obama countered by describing McCain’s economic plan as “using a hatchet where you need a scalpel” and said that “eliminating earmarks alone is not a recipe for how we are going to get the middle class back on track.”

“When you look at your tax policies that are directed primarily at those who are doing well, and you are neglecting people who are really struggling right now, I think that is a continuation of the last eight years, and we can’t afford another four,” Obama said.

Theater patrons seemed pleased that Lehrer chose to focus so much time – more than a third of the debate – on domestic policy issues. Nearly all felt Obama answered those questions more effectively than McCain.

“Foreign policy is important, but looking after people at home is even more important,” said Bill Higgins, 39, of Concord. “I think Obama wants to help guys like you and me, the little people, whereas all McCain is talking about it cutting taxes on big corporations.”

Leaving the theater, patrons were already discussing plans to come back on Oct. 2 to watch the vice-presidential debate between Gov. Sarah Palin and Sen. Joe Biden. Most appeared motivated by the anticipation of how Palin would perform.

For Hari O’Connell, a UC Berkeley law student, expectations were unmistakable.

“I’m hoping to see dramatic humiliation of Sarah Palin,” he said.